Ranchi, Jharkhand Election 2024: The voting for the Jharkhand Assembly Elections has been completed. Voting for the state’s 81 assembly seats took place in two phases. The first phase of voting was held on November 13, while the second phase took place on November 20. After the voting, exit polls have started to come in.
Most of the exit polls show a lead for the NDA (National Democratic Alliance). However, the exit poll by AXIS MY INDIA brings good news for I.N.D.I.A (Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance). According to this poll, I.N.D.I.A is projected to win 53 seats, while the NDA might be limited to 25 seats, far from the majority mark.
What does MATRIZE’s exit poll say?
The exit poll by MATRIZE does not bring good news for I.N.D.I.A. The poll predicts that I.N.D.I.A will win between 25 to 30 seats, while the NDA is expected to win 42 to 47 seats. The “Others” category could win 1 to 4 seats.
What does CHANAKYA STRATEGIES’ exit poll say?
The exit poll by Chanakya Strategies also indicates discomfort for I.N.D.I.A. It forecasts that the BJP-led alliance (BJP+) will win 45 to 50 seats, while the Congress-led alliance (Congress+) may secure 35 to 38 seats. The “Others” category could win between 3 to 5 seats.
Exit Polls in 2019 and their accuracy
In the recently concluded Haryana Assembly Elections, the results contradicted the exit poll predictions, raising doubts about their reliability. However, after the second and final phase of voting in Jharkhand’s assembly elections on Wednesday, most exit polls suggest a clear signal of a power shift. When we look back at the exit polls after the 2019 Jharkhand Assembly Elections, we see that the predictions were largely accurate.
In 2019, most exit polls predicted a clear lead for the JMM (Jharkhand Mukti Morcha)-led alliance. The India Today-My Axis exit poll predicted 43 seats for the JMM-led alliance and 27 seats for the BJP, while Times Now projected 44 seats for the JMM alliance and 28 seats for the BJP. ABP-C Voter’s exit poll was slightly different, predicting 35 seats for the JMM-led alliance and 32 for the BJP, with a hung assembly. After the elections, the Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM) alliance secured 47 seats. The JMM won 30 seats, Congress secured 16 seats, and RJD (Rashtriya Janata Dal) won 1 seat. The BJP was limited to just 25 seats.
Seat Breakdown in 2019 Election Results:
- Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM): 30 seats
- Congress: 16 seats
- RJD: 1 seat
- BJP: 25 seats
- JVM (Jharkhand Vikas Morcha): 3 seats
- AJSU (All Jharkhand Students Union): 2 seats
- NCP (Nationalist Congress Party): 1 seat
- CPI (Maoist): 1 seat
- Independent candidates: 2 seats
